As improving mineral prices prompt a cautious return to growth strategies for major miners, we highlight advanced technology in operations and technology-associated minerals, such as copper, lithium and cobalt, to be the focus of spending. Nonetheless, regulatory uncertainty, particularly in China, will create risks to this otherwise positive outlook.
Global tin mine production growth will decelerate over 2017-2021 compared to the previous five years, due to declining growth rates in Myanmar and Indonesia. Despite this, traditionally large producers such as China, Bolivia and Peru will moderately increase their growth rates, ensuring absolute numbers will remain in positive territory in the coming years.
Global lead mine production growth will slowly accelerate over 2017 driven by a slight rise in prices in relation to 2016. However, during our forecast period from 2017-2021 production rates will largely stagnate due to a subdued price recovery and a weak global project pipeline. Australia and Peru will be the relative growth bright spots from 2017-2021, supported by stronger project pipelines...
Glencore's strategy of prioritising coal assets at a time when major miners are exiting the market will be a boon for the miner in the coming years. Already the world's largest exporter of seaborne-traded coal, Glencore will be able to continue extending monopoly power in providing cheap energy to the developing world where coal will continue to dominate energy mixes for decades to come.
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Thanks, BMI Research