Seaborne thermal coal supply growth will remain weak over the coming years on the back of historically low prices and more stringent environmental regulations in the largest coal producing countries. Bright spots include Columbia and Russia, which will increase their share of exports due to low production costs and government support, respectively.
Turkey's mining sector will expand at a steady pace through our forecast period to 2020, with the failed coup in July 2016 having no effect on mining operations. Nevertheless, increased incidences of civil and environmental protests will pose challenges while an increasingly favourable investment climate encourages new entrants into the industry.
Peabody Energy's bankruptcy highlights the extent of the industry's rout, giving way to further consolidation. The announcement comes on the back of industry-wide challenges, namely high debt levels, low energy prices and increasingly stringent environmental regulations.
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