Industry Forecast - Copper: Growth Ahead To Remain Subdued - MAR 2018
BMI View: Poland's copper sector growth will slow in the coming years owing to falling ore grades and a lack of expansion plans. We expect KGHM to remain the dominant producer of copper in the country as there have been no significant projects announced by other companies.
- In January 2018, state-owned KGHM announced that it will suspend one of its two production lines at the Glogow copper smelter and refinery facility during Q218 for maintenance work.
- In October 2017, the CEO of Poland's state-owned KGHM, one of the world's largest copper and silver producers, announced that the company will likely improve core earnings for the year as high copper prices and output from its mines offset smelter troubles.
- In January 2017, Polish minister Henryk Kowalczyk advised KGHM, which is one of the world's biggest copper producers, not to sell its foreign assets.
Production To Be Dominated By KGHM
Poland's copper sector is set for slowing growth over the next five years owing to falling ore grades and a lack of expansion plans. Nevertheless, compared to an average annual growth rate of 0.2% during 2008-2017, copper production growth will still be higher during 2017-2026, registering an annual average of 0.6% y-o-y. We expect KGHM to remain the dominant producer of copper in the country as there have been no significant projects announced by other companies. The fact that Poland's largest miner is focusing on developing projects in Canada and Chile illustrates the lack of growth available in Poland. KGHM is the sixth largest copper miner in the world. KGHM's three mines, Rudna Glowna, Lublin and Polkowice-Sieroszowice, account for almost all of the country's production, with the remainder of production a by-product at bauxite and gold mines.