Industry Trend Analysis - Bauxite: Indonesia To Return To Export Market - FEB 2017

BMI View: Global bauxite production growth will pick up , supported by a strong project pipeline in Australia, new projects in Asia and Africa funded by Chinese aluminium producers and Indonesia ' s decision to relax the ban on ore exports.


Australia's bauxite sector will maintain steady output growth, supported by a solid project pipeline. Indeed, Australia holds more than half of the 40 bauxite projects in our BMI Mines Database. Namely, Rio Tinto's expansion at the Weipa mine and the new Amrun project will drive growth. In 2016, Rio Tinto reported a 6.4% uptick in production at the Weipa mine and 21.3% increase in output at the Gove mine. While bauxite accounts for less than 5% of Australian mining value, the country is the global top producer, providing about 30.3% of global supply in 2017. Further, Australia will remain a top bauxite exporter to China, although will lose some market share over the coming quarters to returning Indonesian supply. Over the first eleven months of 2016, Australia's bauxite exports to China increased by 13.9% y-o-y to 20.7 million tonnes (mnt).

Australia To Drive Growth
Select Countries - Bauxite Production (mnt)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, USGS, BMI

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