Industry Trend Analysis - Canada Mining To Prove More Resilient Than US - FEB 2016


BMI View : Canada's mining sector will fare relative better than that of US, due to the latter's increasingly stringent environmental regulations and weaker project pipeline over our forecast period to 2019. Both countries' production growth will average lower than previous years due to persistently low commodity prices.

Although the US will remain North America's largest mining industry in terms of absolute tonnage and total mining industry value (MIV), Canada's gold, copper and gold output and MIV growth will fare better over 2016-2019. Canada's mining industry will be supported by a less restrictive regulatory environment and strong project pipeline. We expect Canada's mining industry value to increase by an annual average of 1.5% over this period after contracting by 9.7% over 2012-2015. Meanwhile, we forecast the US mining industry to continue contracting at an annual average rate of 0.6%, following the annual decline of 8.5% over the previous four years. Despite this, the US mining industry will remain dominant in terms of absolute value, as we forecast US mining industry value to total USD87.5bn in 2016, while Canada's mining industry will total USD21.8bn that same year.

Slow But Steady Growth For Canada Gold

Canada To Pull Ahead As North American Bright Spot
Canada & US - Mining Industry Value Growth, % y-o-y
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI

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