Industry Trend Analysis - Coal: No Export Ban In Next Two Years At Least - JULY 2017


BMI View: Indonesia will not enforce an export ban on coal in the coming two to three years as the government continues to prioritise revenue over energy security. In the longer term though, as domestic demand increases and depleting reserves start to take an effect, coal production limits will become more stringent and export restrictions will be enforced with the possibility of a complete export ban becoming more likely.

Amidst unstable mining policy-making in Indonesia, especially regarding ore exports, and declining domestic coal reserves in the coming years, one may wonder whether the Indonesian government will implement a coal export ban in the future. Our view is that Indonesia will not enforce a coal export ban in the next two to three years in order to benefit from the revenues from the sector. However, as domestic demand for coal rises, coal production limits will become more stringent and export restrictions will be enforced with the possibility of a complete export ban becoming more likely.

No Coal Export Ban In Next Two To Three Years

Steady Growth Ahead
Indonesia - Coal Mine Production & Growth
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI Calculation/Energy Information Administration

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