Industry Trend Analysis - Echoing Central America, Caribbean To See Mixed Growth - FEB 2014


BMI View: We expect the Caribbean mining sector to continue developing in fits and starts, with the region as a whole lagging behind both North and South America in terms of both inbound investment and mine output, similar to our outlook for Central America. Moderating mineral prices are likely to lead firms to scale back on greenfield investment, affecting the region's nascent mining development. Still, we believe some countries will see mining output grow and investment increase as the region possesses untapped reserves and as various late-stage projects proceed.

We see only modest mining sector growth across the Caribbean in the coming years as no large-scale projects remain on the horizon. The region will continue to be a global source of bauxite, though historical trends and our below consensus aluminium price forecasts lead us to forecast production growth will remain muted. Our outlook for gold exploration and production remains a bit brighter, though our forecast for gold prices to average lower at US$1,150/oz in 2014 and US$1,100/oz in 2015 leads us to expect potential delays or cancellations of various greenfield projects.

Bauxite To Remain In Decline

Modest Price Growth To Provide Little Boost
Three-Month LME Aluminium Price & Growth

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