Industry Trend Analysis - Iron Ore: Brazil And India To Drive Growth - MAR 2017
BMI View : Global iron ore production will grow modestly due to mine restarts and expansions in Brazil and India which will boost production. Meanwhile, output growth in China will decline on the back of falling ore grades and high costs of production.
Global iron ore production will grow modestly from 3,131mn tonnes (mnt) in 2017 to 3,299mnt by 2021. This represents average annual growth of 1.1% during 2017-2021, slightly slower than the average growth of 1.4% during 2012-2016. On the one hand, supply growth will be primarily driven by India where mine restarts in the state of Goa will boost production and Brazil where major miner Vale is set to expand output with its new mine. On the other hand, miners in China, which operate at the higher end of the iron ore cost curve, will be forced to cut output due to falling ore grades despite the temporary iron ore price rally.
|Output Growth To Grind To A Halt|
|Global - Iron Ore Mine Production (mnt) & Growth y-o-y (%)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: USGS, BMI|