Industry Trend Analysis - Iron Ore: Stagnating Growth - JULY 2017

BMI View: Global iron ore production will grow modestly due to mine restarts and expansions in Brazil and India which will boost production. Meanwhile, output growth in China will decline on the back of falling ore grades and high costs of production.

Global iron ore production will grow modestly from 3,091mn tonnes (mnt) in 2017 to 3,299mnt by 2021. This represents average annual growth of 1.0% during 2017-2021, which is identical to the average growth during 2012-2016. On the one hand, supply growth will be primarily driven by India where mine restarts in the state of Goa will boost production and Brazil where major miner Vale is set to expand output with its new mine. On the other hand, miners in China, which operate at the higher end of the iron ore cost curve, will be forced to cut output due to falling ore grades.


Output Growth To Grind To A Halt
Global - Iron Ore Mine Production (mnt) & Growth y-o-y (%)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: USGS, BMI

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