Industry Trend Analysis - Lead: Global Production To Remain Subdued In 2018 - JAN 2018

BMI View: Global lead mine production growth will slow in 2018 as prices come down from 2017 levels. Over our forecast period from 2018-2026 , production rates will only gradually increase due to a subdued price recovery and a weak global project pipeline. Australia and Peru will be the production growth bright spots among the five largest global producers in the coming years, supported by stronger project pipelines across minerals, in which lead is often mined as a by-product.

Global lead mine production growth will decelerate in 2018 due to rising prices, following a recovery in growth witnessed in 2017. Over 2018-2026, absolute lead production will continue to rise but growth will remain weak, due to a combination of subdued prices and a weak project pipeline in a number of major lead-producing countries. Globally, the top four producers - China, Australia, the US and Peru - will account for more than 70.0% of global lead production over our forecast period to 2021. Despite this, the global lead production market share of these countries will gradually decline from 73.0% in 2017 to 68.7% in 2026, due to strong production growth figures in secondary producers India, Russia and Mexico. China and Australia will continue to account for the vast majority of global output in 2018 at 51.7% and 9.8%, respectively. We forecast global lead mine production to grow at a yearly average pace of 2.2% during 2017-2021. This is slightly faster than the 1.3% annual average growth witnessed from 2012-2016. In terms of tonnage, global output will increase from 5.1 million tonnes (mnt) in 2018 to 5.6mnt by 2021.


China To Remain Largest Producer
Select Countries - Lead Mine Production ('000 tonnes)
f = forecast. Source: BMI, USGS

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