Industry Trend Analysis - Standout States: Nevada Gold And Arizona Copper - OCT 2016

BMI View: Nevada will continue to drive US gold production growth, supported by a strong project pipeline , mining friendly regulatory environment and improving gold prices over our forecast period to 2020. Similarly, Arizona will remain the dominant copper-producing state, despite project delays due to the weak price environment.

Following recent upward revisions to the US gold and copper production forecasts, we identify Nevada and Arizona as the states driving growth in these respective sectors. Given our downbeat outlook for the country's mining industry value as a whole due to the declining coal industry, the Southwest and Far West emerge as regional bright spots. We have revised up our US gold production growth forecast slightly for 2016 and 2017 to 2.0% and 1.5%, respectively, on the back of improving gold prices and major miners' plans to increase output. We have revised up our 2016 US copper production growth forecast from a 5.3% contraction to a 1.5% increase based on stronger than expected production in the first half of the year. We now forecast US copper production to tick higher from 1.3 million tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 1.4mnt by 2020.

Nevada Gold To Shine

Gold, Copper To Fare Slightly Better
US - Select Mineral Production Growth (% y-o-y)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: USGS, BMI

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