Industry Trend Analysis - Ukraine Steel Outlook To Remain Bleak Beyond 2017 - DEC 2017


BMI View: Ukraine will suffer a significant decline in steel production growth this year as a result of the ongoing Donbas blockade, which continues to disrupt supply chains in the country. While favourable steel and iron ore prices will support major Ukrainian steel producer's profitability this year, the outlook for the domestic steel industry remains bleak in the longer term due to the recent implementation of EU tariffs and the lack of a resolution to the Donbas conflict.

Following on our piece of analysis on Ukrainian steel production earlier this year ( See ' Trade Blockade To Disrupt Steel Industry ' , March 24 2017 ), we provide an update on how our view has played out so far and the future prospects for the country. As of October 2017, we note the following key developments and future trends:

  • The Donbas blockade remains place since March 15 and has cut off all transport links between the government-controlled areas of Ukraine and the rebel-held eastern provinces of the Donbas, disrupting key supply chains for the steel industry in the process.

  • Bleak Outlook For Steel
    Ukraine - Steel Production ('000 tonnes)
    Source: Bloomberg, BMI

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