Industry Trend Analysis - Coal Output To Head Higher On Solid 2017 Prices - OCT 2017

BMI View: Colombia's coal sector will experience steady production growth over the coming years, supported by elevated near-term prices, competitive exports and vast reserves.

Colombia's coal mining sector will receive a boost from elevated thermal coal prices over the coming months as solid Chinese demand and global supply disruptions due to unexpected weather keeps the seaborne market tight. We forecast thermal coal prices to remain elevated over the remainder of the year, averaging USD75/tonne then heading lower thereafter ( see ' Thermal Coal: 2017 Upgrade Prompted By Unfavourable Weather Conditions ' , July 28). In March, the Colombian mining vice-minister announced expectations for the country's coal output to total 95.0mnt, compared to a previous estimate of 102mnt. We forecast Colombia to produce 90.7mnt, increasing to 111mnt by 2021.

High Prices In 2017 To Boost Production

Asian Markets To Support Exports
Colombia - Coal Exports ('000 tonnes)
Source: Trade Map

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