Industry Trend Analysis - Tin: Myanmar, Indonesia To Slow Global Production Growth - OCT 2017
BMI View: Global tin production growth will decelerate over 2017-2021 compared to the previous five years, due to declining growth rates in Myanmar, DRC and Indonesia. Despite this, traditionally large producers such as China and Peru will moderately increase their growth rates, thus ensuring absolute numbers will keep on rising in the coming years.
We forecast global tin mine production to grow by an annual average of 2.8% over 2017-2021, down from 4% over the previous five years. This decline will be caused by a slowdown in Asian markets such as Myanmar and Indonesia, the latter as it struggles with increasing government regulations and the depletion of resources. Despite a weaker performance relative to the previous five years as ore production in the country peaks, Myanmar will remain the fastest growing tin ore producer with an average annual growth of 8.6% over 2017-2021. In terms of absolute tonnage, China will dominate, producing an additional 2.6% per annum (ktpa) of tin to reach 119ktpa by 2021. However, China's share of global production will gradually decline 35.9% in 2017 to 35.7% in 2021 due mainly to Myanmar's increase in share from 12.6% to 15.0% over the same period.
Even with steady production growth in Peru and China, growing environmental concerns in Indonesia and shrinking supplies from alternative tin exporter Myanmar will prevent more significant growth in tin mine production. Looking beyond our forecast period to 2021, increasing environmental and supply chains standards regulations as well as ore depletion will become growing challenges. As an extreme example of this negative outlook, the World Bank forecasts global tin supply to become completely depleted due to the aforementioned factors in the next 18 years.
|Myanmar To Close Gap On China|
|Global Tin Mine Production (kt)|